Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
79 0x799a…78c1 crypto 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$116 (-7%) realized −$94 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%91W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$27
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$7
other 19% −$96
sports 16% −$24
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +14.7% +3.7% 56% 56% -3.8%
≤30d 22 +22.5% +10.8% 64% 64% +5.8%
≤90d 109 +4.5% -5.5% 55% 55% -10.3%
all 180 +3.6% -6.2% 51% 51% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 51% -16.2%
10% -15.2% 50% -24.2%
15% -23.4% 44% -31.6%
20% -30.9% 42% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses91 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)180 / 183
History coverage171d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 37¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $31 −$16 -52%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$12 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 30 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 26 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 12 $20 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 08 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 08 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 08 $37 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 08 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 07 $10 +$12 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 07 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 07 $16 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 07 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 07 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 06 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 06 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 22 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 15 $20 −$19 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 3d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 5d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.87 · official $147.87 (match) · 353 history records