Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x799a…e431 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+22%) realized +$49 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$17
14 days+$9
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$67
other 25% −$19
crypto 19% −$5
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +36.9% +23.9% 45% 45% +13.7%
≤30d 18 +9.0% -1.4% 39% 39% +15.5%
≤90d 45 -4.2% -13.3% 47% 47% +13.6%
all 45 -4.2% -13.3% 47% 47% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 47% +13.6%
10% -21.6% 42% +2.8%
15% -29.2% 31% -7.2%
20% -36.1% 29% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage68d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 32¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$22 +307%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $5 +$20 +392%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $21 −$9 -43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 −$8 -80%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +35%
Hornets vs. Magic May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $20 +$31 +154%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Gro Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Valorant: Nova Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 16 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 1AM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +58%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL XLG Gaming 32¢ $5 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $10 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $8 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 15h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 26h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 53¢ $1 46h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 41¢ $1 46h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 47h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $2 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 32¢ $6 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 13¢ $5 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 13¢ $2 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $10 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Anyones Legend 16¢ $0 15d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 32¢ $1 15d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $7 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 16d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.04 · official $48.04 (match) · 112 history records