Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x7997…5e4b sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$693 (+2%) realized +$716 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,133per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$417
7 days+$340
14 days+$340
30 days+$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1,286
sports 21% +$1,660
world 0% −$37
crypto 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +7.0% -3.2% 59% 49% -7.6%
≤30d 37 +7.0% -3.2% 59% 49% -7.6%
≤90d 37 +7.0% -3.2% 59% 49% -7.6%
all 38 +4.6% -5.4% 58% 47% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 47% -7.6%
10% -14.4% 47% -16.4%
15% -22.7% 34% -24.5%
20% -30.3% 24% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$667) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$297 vs −$387 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$565
Realized+$716
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage232d
Avg bet$1,133
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 62¢ 56¢ $493 $449 −$44 (-9%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 60¢ $96 $116 +$20 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $98 −$65 -66%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $94 −$45 -48%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $286 +$289 +101%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $296 +$154 +52%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $97 +$268 +276%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $193 −$189 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $991 +$295 +30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $282 +$368 +130%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,000 −$1,987 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $245 +$24 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,977 −$1,073 -27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,946 +$665 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $498 −$490 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,938 +$1,067 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $413 +$287 +69%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $425 +$4 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,167 +$495 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,497 +$576 +38%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$26 -26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $505 +$220 +44%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $443 +$143 +32%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $99 +$60 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 −$97 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $492 +$497 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $199 +$166 +83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $496 +$13 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11,022 −$1,589 -14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $182 +$104 +57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $151 +$36 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $146 −$20 -13%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $667 −$17 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,803 +$746 +8%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $293 −$90 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 31 $6 −$5 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 62¢ $499 30m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 34¢ $39 33m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 34¢ $150 33m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 34¢ $10 33m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 34¢ $1 33m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 34¢ $45 33m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 34¢ $48 33m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 34¢ $150 33m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 34¢ $150 33m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 34¢ $10 33m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 34¢ $30 33m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $33 35m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $18 36m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $7 36m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $8 36m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $2 36m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $13 36m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $80 54m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $8 54m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 54m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 55m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 52¢ $981 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $97 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $98 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $193 6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $97 6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $92 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,286 6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $194 7h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $296 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.12 · official $565.20 (match) · 159 history records