Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x7996…468e
other · 50 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$29 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses8 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage604d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $74 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $67 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 18 $11 +$7 +67%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 27 $67 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 09 $4 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $17 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $277 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,564 −$5 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $1,504 −$8 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,310 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 79% −$19
other 13% −$8
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% −$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 37h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 40h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $8 3d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $12 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 10d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 19d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 20d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 24d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 25d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.3% 0% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 16 -2.1% -11.5% 19% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -3.6% -12.8% 14% 3% -10.0%
all 49 -2.9% -12.2% 16% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -9.9%
10% -20.6% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.3% 2% -26.4%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.76 · official $9.76 (match) · 304 history records