Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7995…bb7e crypto 1138 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$210 (-4%) realized −$209 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%642W / 495L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day83.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$119
14 days−$238
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 593 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -14.1%
≤30d 1134 -10.3% -18.9% 56% 41% -14.0%
≤90d 1137 -10.2% -18.8% 56% 41% -14.0%
all 1137 -10.2% -18.8% 56% 41% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 41% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 31% -22.2%
15% -33.6% 28% -29.7%
20% -40.1% 27% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$209
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses642 / 495
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1137 / 1138
History coverage30d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day83.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 30¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$5 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.63 (match) · 3157 history records