Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
79 0x7994…624c politics 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$502per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$8
other 25% −$1
sports 14% −$2
tech 13% −$2
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 22 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,279) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$1,448
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage84d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,415 $1,415 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,368 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 16 $2,573 −$4 -0%
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,279 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $13 $0 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Apr 21 $197 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $14 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $4 $0 -5%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 30 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Mar 25 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $67 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,378 5m
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 11m
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 25m
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $26 34m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $955 53m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $378 59m
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,335 1h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $1,314 22h
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 22h
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 22h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $1,285 22h
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 22h
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $15 23h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $964 23h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $16 23h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $408 23h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,374 24h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 36h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 37h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 37h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,428 37h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 37h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,404 38h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $910 38h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 38h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $346 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,448.37 · official $1,448.37 (match) · 67 history records