Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
79 0x7994…c8c3 sports 301 markets active 2h ago coverage 768d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,759 (-5%) realized −$1,779 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate55%162W / 134L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$392
crypto 10% −$1,450
world 5% +$18
other 5% +$238
politics 2% −$212
culture 1% +$120
economics 1% −$74
tech 1% −$9
weather 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +72.3% +55.9% 50% 50% -9.6%
≤90d 10 +14.9% +4.0% 70% 60% -15.1%
all 296 +4.8% -5.2% 55% 33% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 33% -14.2%
10% -14.2% 24% -22.4%
15% -22.5% 19% -29.9%
20% -30.1% 13% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$39 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

768d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$1,779
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses162 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)296 / 301
History coverage768d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 85¢ $39 $48 +$9 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+20%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes $35 $28 −$7 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $36 +$62 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $221 −$62 -28%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $436 −$187 -43%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $41 +$15 +36%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 11 $100 +$38 +38%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $25 +$3 +12%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Apr 16 $400 +$26 +6%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Apr 11 $15 −$2 -13%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 30 $70 +$10 +15%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 30 $86 +$9 +11%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $10 +$284 +2838%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 22 $3 +$1 +45%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $400 +$31 +8%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Mar 21 $100 $0 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $250 −$191 -76%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) Mar 21 $650 −$128 -20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $200 +$2 +1%
Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $580 −$255 -44%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) Mar 20 $50 +$15 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 20 $70 +$4 +6%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) Mar 20 $100 +$28 +28%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Mar 20 $200 +$2 +1%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Mar 19 $20 $0 -1%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) Mar 19 $103 −$2 -2%
Game Handicap: BFX (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5) Mar 18 $20 −$3 -17%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $400 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on March 13? Mar 18 $5 $0 +7%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $7 +$7 +96%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $15 +$5 +35%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $50 +$12 +24%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 1 Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 16 $15 −$9 -57%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 16 $7 +$4 +54%
Will Bilibili Gaming Gaming win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs? Mar 16 $22 +$28 +132%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $3 $0 +2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $20 +$12 +59%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 04 $360 −$86 -24%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 03 $25 +$7 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $60 −$39 -66%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 01 $26 +$11 +42%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $40 +$5 +11%
Will Kanye tweet again by February 28? Mar 01 $62 +$21 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 01 $132 +$11 +8%
Will Gen.G win the LCK Cup 2026? Mar 01 $95 +$64 +67%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 01 $290 +$7 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Dplus Kia win the LCK Cup 2026? Mar 01 $660 −$37 -6%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 01 $265 +$100 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes $36 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 39¢ $20 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $36 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 36¢ $101 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $58 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $58 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $61 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $101 15d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 66¢ $172 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 32¢ $55 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 36d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 58¢ $101 36d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 58¢ $140 36d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $81 42d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $183 42d
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $46 42d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $28 57d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 72¢ $100 61d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $25 66d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $13 72d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $70 91d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $80 91d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 37¢ $6 91d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main BUY Movsar Evloev 69¢ $3 92d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $294 92d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 97¢ $431 92d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $400 92d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $10 92d
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $100 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.06 · official $199.06 · 1043 history records