Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7994…c512 world 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 126d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,375 (+9%) realized +$20,724 · open −$349
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%71W / 53L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$1,307per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$14,954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$184
7 days+$811
14 days−$6,229
30 days−$6,309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$11,380
politics 21% +$2,485
other 11% +$1,508
sports 5% +$136
finance 5% +$239
tech 3% −$354
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.8% -22.0% 60% 50% +5.5%
≤30d 29 -22.8% -30.1% 41% 31% -19.6%
≤90d 75 -14.6% -22.8% 49% 29% -13.0%
all 124 +10.0% -0.4% 57% 37% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 37% -2.6%
10% -10.0% 25% -11.9%
15% ← realistic here -18.7% 21% -20.4%
20% -26.6% 18% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$2,096) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$495 vs −$373 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$14,954
Realized+$20,724
Unrealized−$349
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses71 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions50
Markets (closed)124 / 174
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$1,307
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 49¢ 97¢ $522 $1,036 +$513 (+98%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $657 $808 +$151 (+23%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? Yes 30¢ 68¢ $335 $753 +$418 (+125%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 77¢ 82¢ $702 $748 +$46 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 87¢ 81¢ $754 $700 −$53 (-7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 16¢ 52¢ $157 $525 +$368 (+235%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 97¢ 95¢ $522 $514 −$8 (-1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $510 $513 +$4 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $501 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 96¢ 95¢ $462 $457 −$5 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 41¢ 40¢ $448 $441 −$7 (-2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 70¢ 63¢ $453 $408 −$45 (-10%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 90¢ 92¢ $397 $405 +$9 (+2%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $391 $392 +$1 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 96¢ 95¢ $388 $384 −$3 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 63¢ 86¢ $279 $379 +$100 (+36%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? No 45¢ 78¢ $210 $362 +$153 (+73%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 65¢ 48¢ $464 $339 −$125 (-27%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 58¢ 76¢ $255 $332 +$77 (+30%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $324 $327 +$3 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $307 $320 +$13 (+4%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 93¢ 81¢ $344 $302 −$42 (-12%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 35¢ 36¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 11¢ 24¢ $112 $243 +$131 (+117%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 55¢ 22¢ $547 $225 −$322 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 18 $89 +$10 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $2,096 +$283 +14%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? Jun 16 $134 −$109 -81%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $606 −$127 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $516 +$77 +15%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $592 +$13 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $121 −$84 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $148 −$99 -66%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $627 +$439 +70%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $785 +$407 +52%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 10 $817 −$472 -58%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 10 $567 +$422 +74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 10 $140 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 10 $18 +$14 +79%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 09 $91 +$24 +26%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $236 −$231 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 05 $38 −$37 -97%
Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep Jun 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Jun 05 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Jun 05 $742 +$873 +118%
Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $176 −$176 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026? Jun 05 $1,182 −$754 -64%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Jun 05 $587 +$17 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 05 $5,881 −$3,087 -52%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Jun 05 $9,352 −$3,503 -38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 04 $120 −$81 -67%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $30,000 $0 +0%
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more? May 03 $201 +$99 +49%
Will CD win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Repr Apr 30 $27 +$36 +133%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $2,595 +$67 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $1,582 −$283 -18%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 14 $280 −$48 -17%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 14 $325 +$27 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 14 $2,908 +$358 +12%
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $502 +$207 +41%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $203 +$171 +85%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $154 +$223 +144%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 09 $1,256 +$262 +21%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $1,074 −$976 -91%
Nothing Ever Happens: April Apr 05 $1,616 +$1,024 +63%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on March 29, 2026? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026? Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on March 27, 2026? Apr 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on March 26, 2026? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on March 25, 2026? Apr 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 40¢ $14 19m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 19m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 32¢ $33 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 32¢ $33 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 31¢ $32 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 31¢ $32 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 23¢ $24 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 23¢ $24 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 31¢ $11 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $70 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $80 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,953.81 · official $14,959.26 (match) · 3500 history records