Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x798f…f044 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$232 (+2%) realized +$232 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate92%24W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$101
crypto 13% +$3
other 4% +$120
tech 2% +$3
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 89% 33% -18.2%
all 26 +4.2% -5.8% 92% 19% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 19% -7.7%
10% -14.8% 15% -16.5%
15% -23.0% 12% -24.6%
20% -30.6% 12% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$595) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$265 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses24 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage197d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $479 −$474 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $404 +$75 +18%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $266 +$138 +52%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 14 $208 +$57 +27%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $207 +$2 +1%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $207 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Raptors Mar 30 $205 +$2 +1%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Feb 28 $1,411 +$4 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Feb 22 $1,393 +$18 +1%
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 18 $1,295 +$97 +8%
Heat vs. Pelicans Feb 12 $1,291 +$4 +0%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 03 $126 +$174 +138%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 03 $300 +$155 +52%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 30 $595 +$13 +2%
Heat vs. Trail Blazers Jan 23 $940 +$9 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025? Jan 13 $450 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 07 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 02 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $104 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 02 $132 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $176 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $822 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $54 28d
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 28d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Weibo Gaming 62¢ $116 32d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Weibo Gaming 66¢ $362 32d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor BUY Hanwha Life Esports 84¢ $404 37d
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LNG Esports 65¢ $266 42d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $208 43d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 99¢ $207 66d
Bulls vs. Wizards BUY Bulls 100¢ $207 78d
Magic vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 99¢ $205 87d
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks BUY Grizzlies 100¢ $1,411 117d
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 99¢ $1,393 123d
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 93¢ $1,295 127d
Heat vs. Pelicans BUY Heat 100¢ $1,291 133d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 66¢ $300 142d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 42¢ $116 146d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 146d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 54¢ $81 147d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 54¢ $30 147d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 43¢ $66 147d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 50¢ $218 147d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 44¢ $200 147d
Heat vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 99¢ $940 153d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $57 169d
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $450 170d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $27 178d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $176 184d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $76 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.95 · official $107.95 (match) · 60 history records