Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x798d…300d crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$230 (+1%) realized +$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%51W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$525per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$10
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$142
economics 15% +$31
other 11% +$47
finance 5% +$3
world 3% +$4
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 5 +0.7% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 52 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -8.8%
10% -18.5% 2% -17.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$832) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×55.48 per $1 lost it wins $55.48
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$792
Realized+$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses51 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage253d
Avg bet$525
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $595 $595 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $197 $197 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BNB reach $800 in May? Jun 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 26 $690 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $683 +$5 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $171 +$3 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $781 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 26 $780 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 21 $779 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 03 $578 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $766 +$12 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 06 $765 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $760 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? Mar 20 $586 +$2 +0%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 03 $170 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $286 +$5 +2%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 01 $561 +$17 +3%
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Feb 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 February 16-22? Feb 23 $20 $0 +2%
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 20 $305 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 February 2-8? Feb 09 $298 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $896 +$5 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 03 $296 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? Feb 01 $1,167 +$20 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 02 $154 +$13 +9%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Dec 30 $992 +$13 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $970 +$72 +7%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $966 +$4 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 12 $953 +$5 +0%
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? Nov 10 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November Nov 09 $882 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 8? Nov 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 8? Nov 07 $675 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,700 and $3,800 on November 6? Nov 07 $832 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $825 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on November 4? Nov 05 $869 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on November 3? Nov 04 $951 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $126 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $740 +$3 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Nov 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 02 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 31? Oct 31 $1,789 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 31 $1,778 +$7 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 30 $5 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on October 29? Oct 30 $1,748 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $197 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $596 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $692 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $690 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $517 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $174 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $171 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $171 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $683 26d
Will BNB reach $800 in May? BUY No 99¢ $99 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 100¢ $782 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $781 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $781 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $780 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $779 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $779 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $578 60d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $779 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $766 82d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $765 88d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $175 92d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $590 92d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $588 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $588 98d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $172 114d
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $172 115d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $586 116d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $178 116d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 116d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $110 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $791.84 · official $791.84 (match) · 131 history records