Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x798c…e64c sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$464 (-4%) realized −$463 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%70W / 68L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$104
14 days−$178
30 days−$641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$439
world 33% −$36
finance 8% −$23
other 5% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -20.8% -28.4% 48% 44% -19.0%
≤30d 63 -7.4% -16.2% 49% 43% -21.1%
≤90d 130 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 44% -14.6%
all 138 -7.0% -15.9% 51% 43% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 43% -13.5%
10% -23.9% 33% -21.8%
15% -31.3% 26% -29.3%
20% -38.0% 20% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$38 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$463
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses70 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions4
Markets (closed)138 / 142
History coverage99d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-19%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 90¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $20 −$3 -14%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $301 +$7 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +152%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +66%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $6 +$3 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $404 +$52 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $250 −$134 -54%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $93 +$151 +164%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 −$2 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 09 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $212 −$48 -23%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $354 −$103 -29%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 04 $56 −$56 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 04 $310 +$16 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$54 +53%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 04 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 04 $20 +$4 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 03 $10 $0 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $303 −$4 -1%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 31 $201 −$201 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $404 +$174 +43%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $965 −$611 -63%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $102 −$21 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $20 +$46 +226%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $274 −$20 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $49 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 71¢ $17 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 82¢ $20 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $10 4h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 22h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 24h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $308 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $301 25h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 83¢ $10 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 85¢ $5 28h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 26¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $2 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 48¢ $9 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY No 90¢ $10 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 33¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.71 · official $82.13 (match) · 349 history records