Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x798c…05ad other 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%31W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$91
sports 37% +$86
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +29.5% +17.2% 7% 7% +20.3%
≤30d 65 -8.9% -17.5% 15% 15% -15.2%
≤90d 207 -1.8% -11.2% 15% 15% -14.6%
all 207 -1.8% -11.2% 15% 15% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 15% -14.6%
10% -19.7% 15% -22.8%
15% -27.4% 15% -30.2%
20% -34.5% 15% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses31 / 176
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)207 / 209
History coverage76d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1843%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido end in a draw? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC end in a draw? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 +$5 +473%
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? May 25 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$3 +302%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$7 +672%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nashville SC vs. New York City FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 +$4 +408%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 17m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 42h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 45h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 18d
Will Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 19d
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 19d
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 19d
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 19d
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 21d
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 377 history records