Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x798b…615d other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate24%15W / 48L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$14
politics 17% −$7
other 12% +$11
sports 2% +$36
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 18% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 50 +0.5% -9.1% 26% 16% -8.3%
all 63 +0.0% -9.5% 24% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 13% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 13% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 10% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses15 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage597d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $143 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $18 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $122 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $6 +$7 +105%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $120 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $130 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $118 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $119 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $132 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $242 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $122 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $124 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $129 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$5 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$11 +165%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $15 +$1 +10%
Penguins vs. Lightning Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Flyers vs. Capitals Apr 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Avalanche Apr 02 $34 +$10 +30%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $46 +$2 +4%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 30 $48 +$15 +32%
Devils vs. Hurricanes Mar 29 $27 +$14 +52%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 27 $21 +$35 +163%
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-12.5) Mar 25 $21 +$18 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $84 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 21d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 21d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 22d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 25d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 26d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 26d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $11 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $27 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 27d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 28d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 28d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $122 29d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $122 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.51 · official $83.51 (match) · 266 history records