Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

79 0x7989…2a37 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$40 (-9%) realized −$58 · open +$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip

Net edge+31%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown96%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$124

14 days+$124

30 days+$124

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+30.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+67.1%	+51.2%	57%	57%	+44.8%
≤30d	7	+67.1%	+51.2%	57%	57%	+44.8%
≤90d	9	+44.5%	+30.7%	56%	56%	+26.0%
all	9	+44.5%	+30.7%	56%	56%	+26.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+30.7%	56%	+26.0%
10%	+18.2%	56%	+13.9%
15%	+6.8%	44%	+2.9%
20%	-3.7%	44%	-7.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +44% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$45 vs −$31 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage

Net worth$118

Realized−$58

Unrealized+$18

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 12

History coverage42d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown96%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	56¢	66¢	$100	$118	+$18 (+18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners AND Switzerla	Jun 19	$37	+$100	+272%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. D	Jun 17	$25	+$41	+161%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Jun 17	$79	−$79	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$26	+$24	+92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$22	+$54	+244%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	May 10	$30	−$30	-99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	May 10	$18	+$6	+31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	56¢	$101	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Moro	BUY	21¢	$37	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners AND Switzerla	BUY	26¢	$37	3d
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. D	SELL	99¢	$66	3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Engla	BUY	36¢	$29	4d
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. D	BUY	37¢	$25	4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$2	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$1	5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$39	6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$26	6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	93¢	$37	6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$20	6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$2	6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	39¢	$79	22d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY G2 Esports	13¢	$9	42d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY G2 Esports	21¢	$2	42d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY G2 Esports	42¢	$8	42d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY G2 Esports	51¢	$10	42d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	SELL Karmine Corp	94¢	$8	42d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	SELL Karmine Corp	94¢	$15	42d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY Karmine Corp	72¢	$18	42d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.86 · official $117.86 (match) · 27 history records