Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7984…923f other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$27 (+6%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 31L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$28
other 20% $0
politics 16% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 33 -3.0% -12.2% 6% 3% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -4.5%
10% -20.6% 3% -13.6%
15% -28.3% 3% -22.0%
20% -35.3% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$0 · ×505.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×43.96 per $1 lost it wins $43.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage552d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 20 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Sep 19 $8 $0 -3%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jul 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $0 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? May 11 $0 $0 -29%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? Apr 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 25 $7 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. 76ers Apr 12 $71 +$28 +39%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $176 $0 +0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Dec 11 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 21d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 53d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 61d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $12 62d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $12 62d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $11 83d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $11 83d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 95d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 97d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 122d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 122d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 146d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $10 146d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 184d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 184d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 218d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 218d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 236d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 236d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 267d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 267d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 268d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 269d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 269d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 269d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 301d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 301d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records