Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7983…de0d politics 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%7W / 74L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$20
other 24% −$3
sports 22% −$5
crypto 8% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 81 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses7 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage201d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $266 −$2 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $268 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $268 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $553 −$10 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $554 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $276 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $278 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $278 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $278 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $278 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $560 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $277 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $553 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 31 $277 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $555 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? Mar 29 $277 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $277 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $277 $0 -0%
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $277 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $278 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Mar 22 $278 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $278 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 17 $278 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $278 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 13 $281 −$4 -1%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $281 $0 +0%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $282 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $282 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Mar 06 $282 $0 +0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 05 $273 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Mar 05 $273 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $274 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $271 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 24 $271 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $274 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 07 $272 $0 -0%
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? Feb 06 $270 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 05 $274 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 01 $269 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $269 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Jan 31 $273 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $272 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $265 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $265 12h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $265 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $266 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $266 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $267 20d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $267 25d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $268 26d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $268 34d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $268 34d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 35d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 36d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 36d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 36d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $268 37d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $268 38d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $268 39d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $278 39d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $277 41d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $277 42d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $277 46d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 46d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 46d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 46d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 46d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $278 65d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 65d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 65d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 65d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 254 history records