Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x797c…bbb1 world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate34%34W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$13
other 23% −$1
politics 16% −$6
sports 10% −$7
economics 9% $0
finance 2% +$1
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.0% -14.1% 11% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 32 -5.0% -14.1% 25% 3% -10.2%
≤90d 74 -2.2% -11.5% 28% 1% -9.8%
all 99 +0.6% -9.0% 34% 7% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 7% -10.1%
10% -17.7% 6% -18.7%
15% -25.6% 4% -26.5%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses34 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage534d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $27 $0 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $9 −$4 -38%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -8%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $32 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $43 −$3 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $110 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$2 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $32 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $42 −$2 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $1 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $82 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $31 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $18 +$3 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $9 −$1 -15%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $73 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $17 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $41 $0 +1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $122 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $131 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $27 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 8¢ $4 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 8¢ $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 13¢ $9 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $34 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $34 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $15 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $2 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $8 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $26 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $28 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $27 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.95 · official $25.75 · 402 history records