Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7974…f7d1 politics 237 markets active 3d ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%49W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% $0
politics 35% −$6
sports 8% −$4
crypto 6% −$3
world 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% −$5
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 84 -0.5% -9.9% 5% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 115 -0.7% -10.2% 3% 0% -9.9%
all 235 -1.2% -10.6% 21% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses49 / 186
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)235 / 237
History coverage136d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 11 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 08 $1,072 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $33 $0 -1%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $67 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 28 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $23 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 28 $8 $0 -3%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $11 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $14 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 27 $16 $0 -2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $39 $0 -1%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 26 $66 $0 -1%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $8 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 54¢ $9 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 57¢ $10 6d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $9 6d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $9 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 6d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $5 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $5 6d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $8 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $7 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.02 · official $12.02 (match) · 1106 history records