Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x7973…fa8d
sports · 28 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$21 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$81
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)19 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 9 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 35¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 11¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner EDward Gaming $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $98 −$27 -28%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$16 -64%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $29 +$21 +75%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $162 −$5 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $19 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$28 +91%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $52 −$24 -47%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$5 -32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $45 +$9 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$13 +132%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$22 -70%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 +$21 +34%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$17
other 15% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $38 51m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 38¢ $38 52m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 40¢ $17 58m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 13¢ $28 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 20¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 17¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 16¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 20¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 62¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 17¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 18¢ $6 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 29¢ $6 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 14¢ $3 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 57¢ $44 2h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $26 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $2 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 66¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 61¢ $33 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 50¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.4% -18.9% 42% 42% -10.4%
≤30d 19 -10.4% -18.9% 42% 42% -10.4%
≤90d 19 -10.4% -18.9% 42% 42% -10.4%
all 19 -10.4% -18.9% 42% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 42% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 37% -18.9%
15% -33.8% 26% -26.8%
20% -40.3% 26% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.63 · official $80.63 (match) · 76 history records