Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x796c…25b8
sports · 12 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$147 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$126 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$21
Realized−$126
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage61d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Over 42¢ 20¢ $43 $21 −$22 (-51%)
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Virtanen Virtanen 17¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B HOTU $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Rodriguez vs. Coria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 72¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Fils Andrey Rublev 19¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Alexander Bublik Alexander Bublik $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $76 −$32 -43%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $38 +$5 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $96 +$18 +19%
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Fils Apr 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by April 30? Apr 19 $9 −$4 -42%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1 $0 -25%
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Virtanen Apr 14 $50 −$49 -98%
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Alexander Bublik Apr 14 $69 −$19 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Rodriguez vs. Coria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$111
other 29% −$31
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 1h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $44 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $43 6h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $54 13h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $4 13h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $4 13h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $6 13h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $38 14h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $7 14h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $114 14h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $96 15h
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Fils BUY Andrey Rublev 19¢ $6 55d
Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by April 30? SELL Yes $5 55d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 55d
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Virtanen BUY Virtanen 17¢ $50 60d
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik $20 60d
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alex Molcan 59¢ $70 60d
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alex Molcan 41¢ $50 60d
Rodriguez vs. Coria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 61d
Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by April 30? BUY Yes $9 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down $5 61d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 61d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY HOTU $4 61d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY HOTU $1 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-65.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 67% -13.3%
≤30d 3 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 67% -13.3%
≤90d 11 -61.5% -65.2% 18% 18% -43.8%
all 11 -61.5% -65.2% 18% 18% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.2% 18% -43.8%
10% -68.5% 0% -49.1%
15% -71.6% 0% -54.1%
20% -74.3% 0% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.00 · official $21.00 (match) · 25 history records