trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 45% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 45% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 25 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 44% | 4% | -11.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.9% | 4% | -11.7% |
| 10% | -21.2% | 0% | -20.1% |
| 15% | -28.8% | 0% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 0% | -34.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $33 | $33 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 03 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $62 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 31 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 30 | $72 | −$2 | -3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 29 | $68 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 28 | $37 | $0 | +1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 28 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 27 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 19 | $5 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? | Mar 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Syracuse vs. SMU | Mar 06 | $13 | +$2 | +14% |
| Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 38-42m viewers? | Mar 04 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Heat vs. Cavaliers | Mar 04 | $15 | −$2 | -11% |
| Creighton vs. Seton Hall | Mar 04 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| New Mexico vs. Nevada | Mar 04 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? | Mar 04 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland | Mar 04 | $15 | $0 | +0% |