Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x796b…5243 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-11%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$56
sports 7% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.9% -2.4% 62% 50% -25.7%
≤30d 8 +7.9% -2.4% 62% 50% -25.7%
≤90d 8 +7.9% -2.4% 62% 50% -25.7%
all 8 +7.9% -2.4% 62% 50% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 50% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 25% -32.8%
15% -20.2% 25% -39.3%
20% -28.1% 25% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$32 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $80 −$34 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$20 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $81 −$39 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $47 −$22 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$3 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $24 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $24 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $24 10h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 45¢ $23 10h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 40¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $22 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records