Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x7968…615a
weather · 453 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$628 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$631 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$430
Realized−$631
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses394 / 53
Open positions6
Markets (closed)447 / 453
History coverage142d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 447 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$130
14 days−$115
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 88¢ 90¢ $88 $90 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? No 85¢ 84¢ $85 $84 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 95¢ 94¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? No 94¢ 93¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 15? No 95¢ 98¢ $64 $66 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 15? No 95¢ 99¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? No 94¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $53 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $32 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 10? Jun 11 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $93 +$45 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $49 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $88 −$44 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $28 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $28 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $86 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $74 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 07 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 6? Jun 06 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 06 $153 −$153 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $178 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $89 +$12 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$722
other 1% +$58
crypto 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $7 7m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $69 8m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 95¢ $76 28m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $38 5h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $18 14h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $76 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $76 17h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $19 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $19 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 88¢ $18 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 88¢ $71 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $19 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $18 28h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 95¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $71 47h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $76 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $67 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or below on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 95¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 66¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 66¢ $74 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? SELL No 46¢ $45 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? BUY No 90¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -1.6% -10.9% 91% 5% -13.6%
≤30d 199 -1.0% -10.4% 86% 16% -10.6%
≤90d 438 +0.6% -9.0% 88% 13% -11.8%
all 447 +1.5% -8.1% 88% 14% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 14% -11.2%
10% -16.9% 3% -19.7%
15% -24.9% 2% -27.5%
20% -32.3% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.22 · official $430.22 (match) · 1908 history records