Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
79 0x7967…f4a0 crypto 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12,080 (+3%) realized +$11,234 · open +$846
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%99W / 129L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$1,636per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$11,730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,134
7 days−$936
14 days−$6,028
30 days−$4,017
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$11,319
world 18% +$1,956
sports 18% +$3,903
other 7% −$2,675
politics 4% +$1,167
tech 1% −$2,686
economics 0% −$646
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +11.1% +0.5% 28% 28% -14.6%
≤30d 45 -5.7% -14.7% 27% 27% -21.7%
≤90d 45 -5.7% -14.7% 27% 27% -21.7%
all 228 +4.3% -5.7% 43% 42% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 42% -6.0%
10% -14.7% 38% -15.0%
15% -22.9% 35% -23.2%
20% -30.5% 32% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,643) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,650 vs −$1,178 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$11,730
Realized+$11,234
Unrealized+$846
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses99 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions10
Markets (closed)228 / 238
History coverage593d
Avg bet$1,636
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $4,650 $5,750 +$1,100 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $890 $1,515 +$625 (+70%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1,170 $1,155 −$15 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1,140 $910 −$230 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1,010 $835 −$175 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 23¢ $1,030 $697 −$333 (-32%)
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $330 $309 −$21 (-6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $244 $238 −$6 (-2%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $240 $230 −$10 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $180 $90 −$90 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $584 −$582 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,184 −$2,148 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $45 −$44 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $411 −$400 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $328 −$320 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $653 −$640 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $246 +$1,754 +712%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $1,468 +$1,032 +70%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $143 +$357 +250%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1,037 −$225 -22%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $328 −$320 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $308 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $542 −$540 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $660 −$660 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $600 +$600 +100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $548 −$540 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $147 +$453 +307%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $449 −$438 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $264 −$260 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $215 −$210 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $697 +$3,303 +474%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $199 −$195 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1,643 −$1,600 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $680 +$1,320 +194%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $766 +$2,234 +292%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $828 −$810 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $196 −$195 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $470 −$462 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,126 −$1,100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $219 +$281 +129%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $461 −$450 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,588 −$1,544 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $431 −$420 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $2,175 −$2,146 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $997 −$990 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $123 −$120 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $101 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $546 −$532 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $225 −$220 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $597 +$1,812 +304%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $184 −$180 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $431 −$420 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $895 +$1,105 +124%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,191 −$1,170 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2,990 +$2,010 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 2 Feb 24 $245 +$255 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 8 Feb 09 $225 +$1,275 +567%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 05 $2,079 −$2,079 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 7 Feb 05 $313 −$313 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 2 Feb 03 $261 +$839 +322%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $247 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $246 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,191 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $339 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $503 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $2,184 14h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $81 18h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $45 18h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $411 18h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 16¢ $328 42h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $653 42h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,468 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $246 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $52 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $45 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $45 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $34 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $52 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $82 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $45 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $45 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,729.71 · official $11,729.71 (match) · 1890 history records