Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x7963…9098 politics 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$535 (+0%) realized +$533 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%28W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,419per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$19
14 days−$32
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$120
other 33% +$57
sports 14% +$443
world 3% −$5
economics 2% −$2
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$82
finance 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 +3.5% -6.4% 7% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 86 +8.2% -2.1% 12% 12% -9.2%
all 147 +3.3% -6.5% 19% 16% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 16% -9.3%
10% -15.5% 16% -18.0%
15% -23.6% 14% -25.9%
20% -31.1% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,978) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$10 · ×5.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$1,063
Realized+$533
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses28 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)147 / 149
History coverage135d
Avg bet$1,419
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $686 $685 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $376 $378 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $3,033 −$5 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,550 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $3,079 −$4 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $1,737 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $4,499 −$3 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 22 $625 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $2,269 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,830 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,817 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,710 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $4,387 −$5 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,088 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $976 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,717 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $933 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $68 +$30 +44%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $958 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $69 +$44 +64%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,232 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,878 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $4,243 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,022 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,176 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $4,383 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,798 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,177 −$3 -0%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $71 +$54 +76%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,978 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $369 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $60 +$95 +158%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $1,932 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,883 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,945 −$4 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $3,098 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,501 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $686 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $533 20h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $534 23h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $772 5d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $774 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $524 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $525 5d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $870 5d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $871 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $554 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $555 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $472 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $472 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $624 7d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $625 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 10d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 10d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $538 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $539 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $725 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $726 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $668 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $669 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $645 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $646 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $634 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $634 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $627 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $628 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $568 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,063.26 · official $1,063.26 (match) · 549 history records