Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x7963…7dc9 politics 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$2
politics 26% +$1
other 19% +$10
crypto 11% $0
economics 7% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 +24.9% +13.0% 75% 25% -9.2%
≤90d 4 +24.9% +13.0% 75% 25% -9.2%
all 42 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 7% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 7% -7.5%
10% -15.4% 5% -16.3%
15% -23.5% 5% -24.4%
20% -31.0% 5% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.95 per $1 lost it wins $5.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage430d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $77 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $37 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $18 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 24 $42 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -52%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $19 +$3 +17%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $18 +$1 +5%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? May 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on May 30? May 30 $18 $0 +1%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 30 $18 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 27 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 25 $6 $0 +7%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $12 $0 +2%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'Train to the End of the World' win Crunchyroll's Best Original A May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 19 $13 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 18 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 18 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $1 $0 -11%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? Apr 14 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $5 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $1 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $2 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $17 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $18 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $40 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $40 25d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL Yes $0 355d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $7 357d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 359d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $22 374d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $22 374d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 80¢ $22 374d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 68¢ $19 374d
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? SELL No 99¢ $19 374d
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? BUY No 99¢ $19 374d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? SELL No 99¢ $19 375d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $19 377d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY No 95¢ $18 381d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records