Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:15:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x7961…3579 crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%25W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$431per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$19
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$21
crypto 37% +$5
tech 9% +$1
culture 7% +$1
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 26 +0.3% -9.2% 96% 4% -9.3%
all 26 +0.3% -9.2% 96% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 4% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 4% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$861) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$103 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses25 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage97d
Avg bet$431
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $879 +$7 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $870 +$10 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $869 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $219 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 13? Jun 15 $241 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? Jun 15 $407 +$1 +0%
Will "BROWN - Chris Brown" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will "GREENGREEN - CORTIS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week Jun 09 $127 $0 +0%
Will "Maid of Honor - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the wee Jun 09 $134 $0 +0%
Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album f Jun 09 $139 $0 +0%
Will "Habibti - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of J Jun 09 $142 $0 +0%
Will "The Art of Loving - Olivia Dean" be the Billboard 200 #1 album f Jun 09 $158 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? Jun 01 $866 +$1 +0%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this May 20 $426 +$1 +0%
Will "Devil May Cry: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this wee May 20 $438 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? May 14 $863 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $862 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 14? Apr 15 $861 +$1 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $100 +$105 +104%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 10 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on April 8? Apr 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 8? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on April 8? Apr 09 $799 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 4? Apr 05 $857 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? Mar 31 $856 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $206 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 99¢ $879 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $870 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 100¢ $869 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $407 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $219 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $241 17d
Will "BROWN - Chris Brown" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week BUY No 100¢ $51 21d
Will "Habibti - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of J BUY No 100¢ $142 21d
Will "GREENGREEN - CORTIS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week BUY No 100¢ $127 21d
Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album f BUY No 100¢ $139 21d
Will "The Art of Loving - Olivia Dean" be the Billboard 200 #1 album f BUY No 100¢ $158 21d
Will "Maid of Honor - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the wee BUY No 100¢ $134 21d
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the BUY No 100¢ $116 21d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $866 35d
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this BUY No 100¢ $426 42d
Will "Devil May Cry: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this wee BUY No 100¢ $438 42d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 49d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $858 49d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $862 62d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $861 77d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 31¢ $103 79d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner BUY JD Gaming 49¢ $100 79d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $42 84d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $799 84d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $5 84d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $13 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $857 88d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? BUY Yes 100¢ $856 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.69 · official $205.69 (match) · 54 history records