Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x795e…55c9 crypto 64 markets active 4d ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,000 (+8%) realized +$1,000 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%43W / 21L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$406
14 days+$448
30 days+$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$208
politics 2% +$147
other 1% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +2.5% -7.3% 65% 51% -15.2%
≤30d 53 +4.9% -5.1% 68% 58% -5.6%
≤90d 53 +4.9% -5.1% 68% 58% -5.6%
all 64 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 58% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 58% -6.8%
10% -17.5% 44% -15.7%
15% -25.5% 25% -23.9%
20% -32.8% 16% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$107 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,000
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses43 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage586d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $178 +$65 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $244 −$238 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $132 +$40 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $110 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$50 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $71 −$68 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $84 +$36 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $63 +$44 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $524 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $506 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $462 +$41 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $386 +$79 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $454 −$69 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $336 +$96 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $803 −$94 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $341 +$112 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $313 +$29 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $288 +$25 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $192 +$95 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $171 +$22 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $139 +$32 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$34 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $88 +$17 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $24 +$14 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$10 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $181 −$175 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $217 −$34 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $208 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $327 −$315 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $257 +$46 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $206 +$64 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $929 +$131 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $416 +$524 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $695 +$141 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $91 +$73 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $137 +$89 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $99 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 05 $209 +$80 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $244 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $178 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $132 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $110 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $76 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $78 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $116 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $55 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $120 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $84 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $107 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $63 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $57 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $117 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $407 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records