Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x795e…7768 crypto 715 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$962 (-6%) realized −$962 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%444W / 270L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day75.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$37
14 days−$42
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$889
weather 1% −$16
sports 0% +$1
other 0% −$1
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +4.6% -5.4% 74% 43% -8.5%
≤30d 186 -1.6% -11.0% 70% 40% -11.2%
≤90d 714 -1.8% -11.1% 62% 29% -14.3%
all 714 -1.8% -11.1% 62% 29% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 29% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 16% -22.5%
15% -27.4% 9% -30.0%
20% -34.5% 4% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$962
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses444 / 270
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)714 / 715
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day75.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 714 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $137 −$75 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $73 −$33 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$5 +25%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $87 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $118 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $95 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $112 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $73 +$41 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $92 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $76 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$27 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $44 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $92 −$21 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $71 −$25 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$16 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $71 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $54 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$10 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $41 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $66 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $41 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $41 12h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 97¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $50 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 3500 history records