trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 50% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 57% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 58% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 26 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 65% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.9% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -18.5% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -26.4% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.6% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 89¢ | 90¢ | $58 | $58 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 25 | $64 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | Jun 25 | $54 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 23 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $54 | +$1 | +2% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 26 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $5 | −$1 | -18% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 25 | $54 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 25 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 24 | $54 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 10 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 28 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? | Mar 24 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Another commercial airline evacuation before March? | Mar 20 | $11 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will "Yuck!" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 02 | $14 | −$2 | -16% |
| Southern Illinois vs. Indiana State | Mar 02 | $14 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will 'Wicked' win 4-5 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | Mar 02 | $14 | $0 | -2% |
| Will "Magic Candies" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 02 | $15 | $0 | -3% |