Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x795b…432d other 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$199 (-5%) realized −$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%76W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$7
14 days−$12
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$254
world 9% +$20
politics 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.7% -12.8% 25% 25% -15.7%
≤30d 29 -3.0% -12.3% 34% 24% -11.4%
≤90d 142 -45.1% -50.3% 24% 20% -53.7%
all 214 -5.7% -14.7% 36% 28% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 28% -14.5%
10% -22.8% 27% -22.7%
15% -30.3% 23% -30.2%
20% -37.1% 18% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses76 / 138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)214 / 214
History coverage162d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 214 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $18 −$5 -25%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$10 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $17 +$5 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $17 −$5 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $19 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $37 +$11 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $23 −$7 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $25 −$8 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $5 +$8 +161%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 06 $5 +$5 +99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 06 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 18 $48 −$44 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Apr 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 20h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $7 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $8 28h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 29h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 40h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 41h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 46h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 746 history records