Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x795b…dcf5 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$2
politics 18% $0
world 17% +$3
crypto 12% $0
tech 8% $0
sports 7% $0
weather 4% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 7 -2.8% -12.0% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 7 -2.8% -12.0% 43% 0% -9.1%
all 29 -0.5% -10.0% 41% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage303d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $45 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $62 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -11%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or higher on September Sep 16 $37 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 29 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 27? Aug 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $4 $0 +1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $45 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $35 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $5 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $39 35h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $42 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $42 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $20 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $21 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 26d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $37 281d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 281d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.24 · official $48.23 (match) · 98 history records