Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x795a…fdd1 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$1
sports 32% +$3
other 16% −$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 33 -0.7% -10.1% 24% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage261d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $35 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $14 −$1 -6%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $79 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $38 −$1 -1%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5 Mar 11 $19 $0 +2%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 10 $156 +$3 +2%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 09 $94 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 09 $3 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 07 $23 −$1 -5%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $2 $0 -7%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 30 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $35 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $35 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 7d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 8d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $10 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $24 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $16 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $19 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $38 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $38 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $35 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $35 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $38 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $38 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.01 · official $34.01 (match) · 96 history records