Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x7959…cb42 politics 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+11%) realized +$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$3
other 26% −$2
world 11% $0
sports 11% +$8
tech 11% +$1
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% +1.2%
≤30d 5 +3.3% -6.6% 60% 60% +5.3%
≤90d 5 +3.3% -6.6% 60% 60% +5.3%
all 5 +3.3% -6.6% 60% 60% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 60% +5.3%
10% -15.5% 40% -4.8%
15% -23.7% 20% -14.0%
20% -31.2% 20% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 29¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+84%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 24¢ 27¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 30 or more p Jun 14 $5 +$8 +163%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market Jun 05 $5 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.96 · official $22.96 (match) · 16 history records