Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7958…f919 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%28W / 34L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$4
politics 22% +$6
other 19% +$15
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 20 +0.9% -8.7% 55% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 20 +0.9% -8.7% 55% 0% -9.0%
all 62 +1.3% -8.3% 45% 5% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -8.0%
10% -17.1% 3% -16.8%
15% -25.1% 2% -24.8%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.44 per $1 lost it wins $8.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses28 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage298d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $26 $0 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $58 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $57 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $74 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $7 $0 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $135 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $27 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $86 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $21 +$14 +64%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 26 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $3 $0 -7%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $6 −$2 -44%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? Sep 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 08 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will PPP/C win the most seats in the 2025 Guyana National Assembly ele Sep 02 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 12h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $56 19h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $3 19h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $20 21h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $38 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $21 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $25 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $3 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $29 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $15 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $41 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $39 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $57 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.40 · official $29.40 (match) · 260 history records