Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
79 0x7955…6c53 other 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,481 (+1%) realized +$1,477 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%33W / 118L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,629per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$46
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$144
other 37% +$7
sports 9% +$1,604
culture 4% −$12
economics 2% −$8
world 2% −$32
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 +12.1% +1.4% 14% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 82 +4.6% -5.3% 10% 6% -9.0%
all 151 +5.1% -4.9% 22% 12% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 12% -9.0%
10% -14.0% 12% -17.7%
15% -22.3% 12% -25.7%
20% -29.9% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 56% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$2,310) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$6 · ×11.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$493
Realized+$1,477
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses33 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)151 / 153
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,629
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $270 $275 +$5 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $218 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 26 $3,689 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $2,191 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $1,441 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 24 $3,236 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $4,408 −$5 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,908 −$3 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 17 $996 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $3,547 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,564 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,408 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $3,001 −$5 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,613 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,614 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,540 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $4,462 −$7 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,219 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,598 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,923 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $57 +$74 +129%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,949 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,725 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $9,125 −$11 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $49 +$66 +134%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $60 +$114 +188%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $323 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $615 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $3,807 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $549 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $547 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $669 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $3,592 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,310 −$2 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $2,053 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,813 −$2 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $546 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $218 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $338 43h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $338 44h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $608 47h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $609 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $336 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $336 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $336 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $336 3d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $334 3d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $334 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $366 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $367 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $490 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $491 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $362 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $363 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $911 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $913 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,103 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,105 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $664 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $665 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $994 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $996 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,200 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,202 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,234 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,236 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,406 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.80 · official $492.80 (match) · 523 history records