Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7952…025a crypto 805 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$364 (-7%) realized −$364 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate37%294W / 511L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$16
14 days−$13
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$356
other 1% −$9
weather 0% +$9
sports 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$7
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -3.5% -12.7% 37% 30% -6.5%
≤30d 251 -7.5% -16.3% 31% 26% -15.7%
≤90d 431 -9.3% -17.9% 32% 23% -15.3%
all 805 -13.1% -21.4% 37% 25% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 25% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 16% -24.1%
15% -35.8% 11% -31.4%
20% -42.1% 9% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$364
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses294 / 511
Open positions0
Markets (closed)805 / 805
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 805 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$18 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$12 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$10 +558%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $56 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $47 +$28 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$8 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 08 $7 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records