Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x7951…7a37 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 50% +6.3%
≤30d 16 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 50% +6.3%
≤90d 16 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 50% +6.3%
all 16 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 50% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 50% +6.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 50% -3.9%
15% -28.0% 44% -13.1%
20% -35.1% 31% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$38 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records