Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7951…6b0c world 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$78 (+1%) realized +$79 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate49%42W / 44L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$25
politics 24% +$5
other 22% +$97
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% $0
weather 1% +$2
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +484.1% +428.5% 83% 33% +33.4%
≤90d 78 +36.2% +23.2% 49% 8% -8.4%
all 86 +33.0% +20.3% 49% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.3% 8% -8.5%
10% +8.8% 5% -17.2%
15% -1.7% 3% -25.2%
20% -11.4% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses42 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage95d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $157 $157 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $71 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$45 +1624%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $128 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on May 23? May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film May 23 $4 +$48 +1370%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? May 20 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 20 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $143 $0 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 12 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $88 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $179 $0 -0%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 10 $776 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $98 −$2 -2%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 07 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $327 −$13 -4%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 02 $194 +$1 +0%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $3 −$1 -27%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 29 $93 $0 +0%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 27 $93 $0 +0%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 Apr 27 $94 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 26 $206 +$1 +0%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Apr 25 $93 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 24 $93 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? Apr 24 $193 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 24 $22 $0 +2%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30? Apr 22 $193 $0 +0%
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $11 $0 -2%
Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 17 $91 +$1 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $97 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $49 $0 +1%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $90 $0 -0%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 12 $19 −$5 -27%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $94 $0 +0%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 11 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 10 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 09 $7 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $96 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $61 1h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY No $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes $2 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? BUY No 95¢ $28 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? BUY No 95¢ $43 20d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 96¢ $45 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 96¢ $45 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes $3 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 97¢ $38 27d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on May 23? BUY No 98¢ $5 31d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY Yes $4 32d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 95¢ $32 34d
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? BUY No 95¢ $7 35d
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? BUY No 95¢ $24 35d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 39d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 39d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 39d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 39d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 39d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 99¢ $71 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 99¢ $10 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 98¢ $81 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $88 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $88 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $62 41d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $62 41d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $88 41d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $88 41d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? SELL Yes $12 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.78 · official $157.78 (match) · 357 history records