Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x7951…71fe
other · 45 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$10 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)32 / 45
History coverage189d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 13 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Clavicular sentenced to prison? No 89¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 08 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Mar 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Mar 27 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 27 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 27 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 27? Mar 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 27? Mar 17 $1 $0 +2%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 17 $1 $0 +22%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 17 $1 $0 +28%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Jan 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 18 $1 $0 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 18 $1 $0 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 18 $1 $0 +12%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 18 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% −$4
crypto 25% −$4
world 11% −$2
politics 8% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 4% −$2
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 79¢ $1 33d
Clavicular sentenced to prison? BUY No 89¢ $1 33d
Clavicular sentenced to prison? SELL No 88¢ $1 33d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 36d
Clavicular sentenced to prison? BUY No 87¢ $1 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 83¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 77d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 77d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 99¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 77d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $1 77d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1 77d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 27 -22.2% -29.6% 67% 22% -36.6%
all 32 -17.1% -25.0% 72% 25% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 25% -31.8%
10% -32.2% 6% -38.3%
15% -38.7% 3% -44.3%
20% -44.7% 3% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.07 · official $12.07 (match) · 76 history records