Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x794d…1c5d world 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-2%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$51
14 days−$60
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$12
other 12% −$30
economics 7% −$51
sports 7% −$1
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.2% -13.3% 40% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 23 -6.1% -15.0% 22% 4% -11.9%
≤90d 23 -6.1% -15.0% 22% 4% -11.9%
all 23 -6.1% -15.0% 22% 4% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 4% -11.9%
10% -23.1% 0% -20.3%
15% -30.6% 0% -28.0%
20% -37.4% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage20d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $308 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $176 $0 -0%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 24 $230 −$51 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $306 −$4 -1%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $152 +$4 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $198 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $340 −$14 -4%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $46 +$6 +12%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $146 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $590 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $21 −$19 -93%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 09 $130 $0 -0%
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $42 −$14 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $164 $0 -0%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 08 $239 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $13 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $88 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $100 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 16h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $96 16h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 16h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $176 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $101 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 45¢ $90 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $150 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $150 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 45¢ $90 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 42¢ $7 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 41¢ $7 4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $23 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 5d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 39¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records