Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

79 0x794d…c228 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$1,010 (+23%) realized +$993 · open +$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%12W / 13L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$137per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$409

7 days+$1,009

14 days+$1,798

30 days+$1,565

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+10.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+57.9%	+42.9%	75%	75%	+48.7%
≤30d	25	+22.0%	+10.3%	48%	48%	+30.8%
≤90d	25	+22.0%	+10.3%	48%	48%	+30.8%
all	25	+22.0%	+10.3%	48%	48%	+30.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.3%	48%	+30.8%
10%	-0.2%	48%	+18.3%
15%	-9.9%	48%	+6.9%
20%	-18.7%	36%	-3.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -16% → late +57% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$207 vs −$71 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$233

Realized+$993

Unrealized+$17

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses12 / 13

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions2

Markets (closed)25 / 32

History coverage21d

Avg bet$137

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	46¢	50¢	$116	$125	+$9 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$100	$109	+$9 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	Jun 20	$204	+$343	+168%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$152	+$116	+76%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$102	+$142	+139%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$404	+$230	+57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$404	+$202	+50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 16	$153	−$150	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$102	+$176	+172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$101	−$13	-13%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 12	$101	−$5	-5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$41	−$5	-11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$306	+$527	+172%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$204	+$284	+140%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05?	Jun 05	$202	+$72	+36%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim	Jun 05	$47	−$47	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Jun 05	$102	−$102	-100%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 05	$202	−$202	-100%
Will Indonesia vs. Oman end in a draw?	Jun 05	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05?	Jun 05	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw?	Jun 05	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05?	Jun 05	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 05	$134	+$64	+48%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Jun 04	$52	+$201	+390%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	May 31	$202	−$200	-99%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 31	$102	+$131	+129%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	46¢	$118	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	BUY	37¢	$102	17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	BUY	38¢	$102	42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	BUY	37¢	$102	42h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	42h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-	BUY	12¢	$26	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY	56¢	$152	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$404	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$404	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$153	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	54¢	$203	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	36¢	$102	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	41¢	$102	7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY	32¢	$102	7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-	BUY	31¢	$204	7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	46¢	$89	7d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	SELL Morocco	67¢	$96	7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	25¢	$36	7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$832	7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	36¢	$102	8d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	69¢	$101	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	36¢	$102	8d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	41¢	$204	11d
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05?	BUY Yes	73¢	$202	14d
Will Indonesia vs. Oman end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$51	14d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05?	BUY Yes	15¢	$31	14d
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$51	14d
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	67¢	$134	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.36 · official $328.31 · 73 history records