Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

79 0x794d…53c8 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$16,733 (+10%) realized +$17,950 · open −$1,217

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%11W / 11L

Whale WR67%big bets

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$7,167per market

Trades / day4.5pace

Fees−$222est.

Kalshi-fit13%portable

Net worth$6,783now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$14,940

7 days+$8,645

14 days+$14,712

30 days+$14,712

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-4.0%	-13.1%	47%	47%	-0.4%
≤30d	22	+1.0%	-8.6%	50%	50%	-0.9%
≤90d	22	+1.0%	-8.6%	50%	50%	-0.9%
all	22	+1.0%	-8.6%	50%	50%	-0.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.5 tr/day

realistic slip~12%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.6%	50%	-0.9%
10% ← realistic here	-17.4%	50%	-10.4%
15%	-25.3%	45%	-19.0%
20%	-32.7%	27%	-27.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 67% (≥$9,139) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -10% → late +12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$4,020 vs −$2,682 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$6,783

Realized+$17,950

Unrealized−$1,217

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses11 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)67%

Est. fees paid−$222

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage14d

Avg bet$7,167

Trades / day4.5

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	23¢	20¢	$8,000	$6,783	−$1,217 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 28	$4,200	+$1,636	+39%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$6,074	+$4,096	+67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 28	$14,251	+$5,279	+37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$9,139	−$5,768	-63%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$2,024	−$58	-3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$13,672	+$9,756	+71%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$6,111	−$3,532	-58%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	Jun 26	$3,050	−$205	-7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$1,019	+$1,021	+100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$11,810	+$5,148	+44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$764	−$728	-95%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$5,057	−$5,000	-99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$3,158	−$430	-14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$6,586	−$2,936	-45%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 22	$1,530	+$367	+24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$7,069	+$3,378	+48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5,079	−$3,524	-69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$12,831	+$7,960	+62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$8,379	+$4,472	+53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$6,757	−$3,519	-52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$26,072	−$3,804	-15%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$2,022	+$1,103	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	23¢	$8,185	16m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	92¢	$5,836	27m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	67¢	$159	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	64¢	$1,516	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	66¢	$2,525	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	18¢	$1,435	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	19¢	$1,756	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	20¢	$179	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	46¢	$3,049	3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	47¢	$3,048	3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	27¢	$1,965	3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	27¢	$2,024	3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	53¢	$3,042	4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	59¢	$6,074	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$3,544	27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	57¢	$5,064	27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5,063	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	98¢	$19,530	30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	71¢	$14,251	32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	17¢	$1,501	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	17¢	$1,079	2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	SELL Netherlands	43¢	$0	2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	SELL Netherlands	42¢	$2,845	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$3,056	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$3,055	2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	BUY Netherlands	44¢	$3,050	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	78¢	$2,040	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	38¢	$1,019	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	69¢	$11,810	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	1¢	$36	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,782.61 · official $6,782.61 (match) · 81 history records