Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x794c…56ec world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$4
other 20% +$1
politics 17% $0
sports 15% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
weather 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 0% -10.3%
all 35 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.9%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage296d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 −$3 -10%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $31 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $31 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $34 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 01 $2 $0 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 19 $32 $0 -1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $33 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $34 $0 -1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 15 $3 $0 -15%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on Sept Sep 09 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $3 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 02 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $5 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $21 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $27 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $6 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $22 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $32 47h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $32 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $23 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $8 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $30 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $32 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $19 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $12 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $32 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $18 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $12 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $32 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $4 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $26 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $3 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 14d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 15d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.56 · official $31.56 (match) · 125 history records