Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x794c…fa17 sports 270 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$262 (-1%) realized −$266 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate68%183W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$105
14 days−$86
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$277
weather 7% −$349
other 6% +$100
crypto 1% −$85
tech 0% +$4
politics 0% −$35
culture 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -42.8% -48.3% 43% 43% -56.6%
≤30d 49 -5.6% -14.5% 69% 67% -13.8%
≤90d 182 +1.6% -8.1% 72% 68% -11.2%
all 269 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 64% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 64% -11.9%
10% -20.8% 52% -20.4%
15% -28.5% 29% -28.1%
20% -35.5% 9% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$66 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$266
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses183 / 86
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions1
Markets (closed)269 / 270
History coverage119d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Ben Shelton 80¢ 90¢ $28 $31 +$4 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $22 +$5 +24%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $30 +$10 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $40 +$10 +24%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $41 +$30 +74%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $40 +$6 +14%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 05 $50 +$12 +24%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $40 +$12 +29%
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Birmingham: Mary Stoiana vs Lulu Sun Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Foggia: Miriana Tona vs Viola Turini Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $50 +$21 +41%
Vicenza: Jacopo Vasami vs Lukas Neumayer May 31 $50 +$14 +27%
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Cezar Cretu May 30 $31 +$9 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic May 29 $60 +$10 +17%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $50 −$4 -9%
Vicenza: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Lautaro Midon May 28 $60 +$14 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell May 28 $50 +$10 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 28 $50 −$39 -78%
Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Tristan Boyer May 27 $50 +$11 +23%
Vicenza: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Remy Bertola May 27 $50 +$2 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif May 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Simona Waltert vs Katerina Siniakova May 26 $50 +$16 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $50 +$12 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Claire Liu vs Moyuka Uchijima May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean May 25 $50 +$18 +35%
Roland Garros WTA: Julia Grabher vs Rebecca Sramkova May 25 $51 +$26 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska May 25 $50 +$21 +41%
Roland Garros WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Emiliana Arango May 24 $50 +$19 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan May 24 $51 −$48 -95%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Katarina Zavatska vs Lucia Bronzetti May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Ann Li May 22 $51 +$31 +62%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Viktoria Hruncako May 22 $50 +$13 +26%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer May 21 $50 +$18 +35%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado May 21 $50 +$10 +20%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar May 21 $50 +$15 +30%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Jessika Ponchet May 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Sloane Stephens vs Lisa Pigato May 20 $51 +$33 +64%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Marco Cecch May 20 $50 +$14 +27%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 20 $50 +$15 +29%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Xiaodi You May 19 $50 +$15 +30%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Zsombor Piros May 19 $50 +$13 +26%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Peyton Stearns vs Daria Kasatkina May 19 $50 +$19 +37%
Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas May 18 $30 +$16 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 80¢ $28 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $28 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $22 7h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $18 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 44¢ $31 4d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones SELL Filippo Romano 100¢ $40 5d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 74¢ $30 5d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 99¢ $29 5d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 69¢ $20 5d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 68¢ $40 5d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas SELL David Jorda Sanchis 99¢ $50 7d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas BUY David Jorda Sanchis 79¢ $40 7d
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 68¢ $40 7d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 99¢ $71 7d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 56¢ $41 7d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme SELL Kaitlin Quevedo 100¢ $46 7d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 87¢ $40 7d
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $62 12d
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic BUY Nikola Bartunkova 80¢ $50 12d
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko SELL Alex Molcan 100¢ $52 12d
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Alex Molcan 77¢ $40 13d
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 69¢ $50 15d
Foggia: Miriana Tona vs Viola Turini BUY Miriana Tona 65¢ $51 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 100¢ $71 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 70¢ $50 16d
Birmingham: Mary Stoiana vs Lulu Sun BUY Lulu Sun 82¢ $50 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 82¢ $50 17d
Vicenza: Jacopo Vasami vs Lukas Neumayer SELL Lukas Neumayer 100¢ $64 18d
Vicenza: Jacopo Vasami vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Lukas Neumayer 78¢ $50 18d
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Cezar Cretu SELL Cezar Cretu 100¢ $40 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.20 · official $31.20 (match) · 595 history records