Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7948…90ca politics 225 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$12 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%58W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$37
14 days−$39
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$27
other 25% −$47
crypto 11% −$3
sports 6% −$3
world 4% −$4
weather 3% −$9
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.2% -13.3% 4% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 86 -1.5% -10.9% 1% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 155 -1.6% -11.0% 12% 0% -11.1%
all 224 -1.1% -10.5% 26% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.9%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses58 / 166
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)224 / 225
History coverage113d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 21¢ $42 $10 −$32 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Cham Jun 29 $43 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $45 −$4 -9%
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? Jun 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election? Jun 28 $32 −$19 -60%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc Jun 28 $33 −$1 -3%
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 Jun 28 $38 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30? Jun 28 $38 −$2 -6%
Will Zeka Win MSI Finals MVP Jun 28 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 28 $40 −$2 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $15 −$1 -4%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $61 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $46 −$1 -2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$1 -2%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $26 $0 -1%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 16 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $42 12m
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Cham SELL Yes 32¢ $41 1h
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Cham BUY Yes 33¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 2h
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 2h
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 41¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 3h
Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 11h
Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election? BUY Yes 46¢ $32 14h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc SELL Yes 47¢ $32 15h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc BUY Yes 47¢ $33 15h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 SELL Yes 34¢ $35 16h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 BUY Yes 37¢ $38 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $35 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $38 18h
Will Zeka Win MSI Finals MVP SELL Yes 14¢ $9 20h
Will Zeka Win MSI Finals MVP SELL Yes 14¢ $1 20h
Will Zeka Win MSI Finals MVP BUY Yes 14¢ $3 20h
Will Zeka Win MSI Finals MVP BUY Yes 14¢ $3 20h
Will Zeka Win MSI Finals MVP BUY Yes 14¢ $3 20h
Will Zeka Win MSI Finals MVP BUY Yes 14¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 41¢ $38 21h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 42¢ $40 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.13 · official $10.13 (match) · 1285 history records