Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7948…bd0a crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$271 (-17%) realized −$222 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate76%35W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$29
other 22% −$294
sports 8% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 48% -25.4%
≤30d 46 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 48% -25.4%
≤90d 46 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 48% -25.4%
all 46 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 48% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 48% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 24% -32.5%
15% -26.7% 13% -39.1%
20% -33.8% 4% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$38 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses35 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage5d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $76 −$18 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $76 −$42 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $6 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$44 -44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $166 −$165 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $37 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $33 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $27 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $34 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $28 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.11 · official $50.56 (match) · 128 history records