Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:06:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7943…3990 crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$183 (-8%) realized −$186 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.6% -3.5% 71% 57% +2.2%
≤30d 7 +6.6% -3.5% 71% 57% +2.2%
≤90d 40 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 38% -16.7%
all 40 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 38% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 38% -16.7%
10% -31.2% 25% -24.6%
15% -37.9% 20% -31.9%
20% -44.0% 10% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$32 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage45d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 77¢ 81¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $152 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $66 +$14 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $111 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 19 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 17 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 14 $217 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 14 $144 −$44 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 14 $206 −$112 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 14 $104 −$18 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 14 $62 −$38 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 14 $21 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 14 $94 +$220 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 14 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 14 $105 −$102 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 12 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 12 $41 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 12 $62 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 12 $62 +$57 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 12 $83 +$67 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 12 $61 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 12 $62 −$40 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 12 $82 +$41 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 12 $15 −$14 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 12 $16 −$10 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $89 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $108 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $65 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $130 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.06 · official $32.88 · 143 history records