Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x7940…47e7 sports 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$1,648 (+15%) realized +$1,153 · open +$495
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Fees−$264est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,465
other 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +24.8% +12.9% 61% 48% +1.4%
≤30d 31 +24.8% +12.9% 61% 48% +1.4%
≤90d 31 +24.8% +12.9% 61% 48% +1.4%
all 31 +24.8% +12.9% 61% 48% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.9% 48% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here +2.1% 48% -8.3%
15% -7.8% 42% -17.2%
20% -16.8% 39% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$21 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.8 per $1 lost it wins $4.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2,716
Realized+$1,153
Unrealized+$495
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$264
Open positions18
Markets (closed)31 / 49
History coverage6d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 78¢ $353 $521 +$169 (+48%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 49¢ 48¢ $500 $485 −$15 (-3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 86¢ $352 $479 +$126 (+36%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 79¢ 81¢ $227 $233 +$6 (+3%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 82¢ $141 $205 +$64 (+45%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 38¢ $142 $190 +$48 (+34%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 34¢ 58¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Sofia Kenin 39¢ 40¢ $78 $80 +$2 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 51¢ $28 $51 +$23 (+82%)
Set Handicap: Gao (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Wang 91¢ 92¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 52¢ 62¢ $22 $26 +$5 (+21%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Leylah Fernandez 62¢ 60¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Mayar Sherif 81¢ 89¢ $20 $21 +$2 (+9%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Yes 58¢ 46¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-21%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 84¢ 97¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+16%)
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 54¢ 34¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-38%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 32¢ 38¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $156 +$84 +54%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $1,344 −$4 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $608 +$11 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $197 −$9 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $131 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $548 +$11 +2%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $150 −$3 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $178 +$149 +84%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $110 −$1 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $104 +$114 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $225 −$10 -5%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 13 $217 −$70 -32%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,131 +$101 +9%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $99 +$84 +85%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $160 +$75 +47%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $80 +$21 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $306 +$251 +82%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Jun 11 $17 +$8 +50%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Mar Jun 11 $0 $0 +70%
Will the game go to extra innings?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York M Jun 11 $21 +$5 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $870 +$87 +10%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 +117%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $8 +$10 +116%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $19 −$16 -81%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $52 +$35 +68%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 11 $101 −$13 -13%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic Jun 10 $951 −$46 -5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $102 +$76 +75%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $102 +$90 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $508 28m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 39¢ $79 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $4 1h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 65¢ $200 8h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 65¢ $1 9h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 65¢ $143 9h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 65¢ $13 10h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 65¢ $13 10h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Emma Raducanu 56¢ $1,002 11h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 65¢ $194 11h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Emma Raducanu 55¢ $35 11h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Emma Raducanu 55¢ $36 11h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Emma Raducanu 56¢ $234 11h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 65¢ $13 11h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Emma Raducanu 56¢ $32 11h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 66¢ $6 11h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 66¢ $3 11h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 62¢ $589 12h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Emma Raducanu 56¢ $4 12h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Emma Raducanu 56¢ $267 12h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Emma Raducanu 55¢ $14 12h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Emma Raducanu 55¢ $1,059 12h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 81¢ $20 12h
Set Handicap: Gao (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Wang 91¢ $16 13h
Set Handicap: Gao (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Wang 90¢ $16 13h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $8 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 55¢ $110 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 55¢ $124 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 55¢ $6 14h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $12 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,715.98 · official $2,715.98 (match) · 299 history records