Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
79 0x793c…1b9e sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,451 (+18%) realized +$1,421 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +129% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +91% what you keep after slip
Net edge+91%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$194est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,372
7 days+$779
14 days+$1,389
30 days+$1,389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+107.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +204.2% +175.2% 43% 43% -5.2%
≤30d 38 +128.8% +107.0% 37% 37% +0.3%
≤90d 38 +128.8% +107.0% 37% 37% +0.3%
all 38 +128.8% +107.0% 37% 37% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +107.0% 37% +0.3%
10% +87.2% 37% -9.3%
15% +69.1% 37% -18.0%
20% +52.5% 37% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +129% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +268% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$437 vs −$197 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized+$1,421
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Est. fees paid−$194
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage14d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 30¢ $420 $442 +$22 (+5%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+8%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 42¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+12%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Over 23¢ 24¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Over 11¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $34 +$94 +276%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $114 +$87 +76%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $90 +$467 +521%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $194 +$417 +215%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $321 +$306 +95%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $282 +$318 +113%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $169 −$168 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $125 +$175 +139%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $64 +$185 +287%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $553 −$549 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $114 −$111 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $239 −$235 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $302 −$296 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $123 +$677 +550%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $80 −$78 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $245 +$554 +226%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $187 −$187 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $78 −$76 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $303 −$297 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $276 +$724 +262%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $133 −$130 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $502 −$495 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $454 −$120 -26%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $195 −$190 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $228 −$224 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $61 −$60 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $613 −$600 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $352 +$769 +218%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $263 +$647 +246%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $136 +$695 +510%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $39 1h
France vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $3 1h
France vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $9 1h
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 23h
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $29 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $429 25h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 81¢ $87 39h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 81¢ $1 39h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 81¢ $114 39h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $201 40h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $7 40h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $34 40h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $1 40h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $314 40h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 92¢ $553 40h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 94¢ $386 40h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 94¢ $100 40h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 94¢ $9 40h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 94¢ $28 40h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 94¢ $9 40h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $34 41h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $114 41h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 24¢ $55 41h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $94 41h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $33 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $8 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $7 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.18 · official $528.81 (match) · 143 history records